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S Korea warning on Lehman move
By Song Jung-a in Seoul

Published: August 26 2008 03:00 | Last updated: August 26 2008 03:00

South Korea's top financial regulator yesterday said it was "cautious" on Korea Development Bank's interest in taking over a bank such as Lehman Brothers, stressing that such a deal would be better led by private lenders.

Jun Kwang-woo, chairman of the Financial Services Commission, told reporters he was aware that KDB was considering the possibility of buying a global investment bank.

"In principle, taking over a global investment bank can become an opportunity to raise the capability of the [South Korean] investment banking business," Mr Jun said.

"But at the same time, as the risks are also big, KDB should take a cautious approach.

"We welcome any efforts led by the private sector to go global, but it may not be proper for state-owned financial institutions to lead the role and take on excessive burdens."

Lehman shares were down 6.6 per cent at $13.45 after falling as much as 8.4 per cent on Mr Jun's comments.

The Financial Times revealed last week that KDB had spoken to Lehman about buying a 50 per cent stake but failed to reach an agreement.

According to people familiar with the negotiations, the Koreans discussed a two-step process under which KDB would buy a 25 per cent stake directly from Lehman and another 25 per cent though a market tender.

Lehman is considering options to raise cash before its mid-September earnings report, which JPMorgan analysts expect to include writedowns of up to $4bn.

These include a sale of a stake in Lehman itself or the sale of all or part of its asset management arm or its commercial real estate portfolio.

KDB said yesterday that it was "thinking about various options [to raise competitiveness]" ahead of a planned privatisation.

But the lender declined to comment on its interest in Lehman.

Last month Min Euoo-sung, KDB's new chairman and a former head of Lehman in Korea, said the lender would actively seek overseas takeovers.

He said US subprime woes provided an opportunity for KDB.

"Plans for mergers and acquisitions in foreign markets are included in our strategy to develop into a global financial company," Mr Min said.

Korea plans to privatise KDB by 2012 by setting up a holding company, and is preparing for an initial public offering next year.

See Markets
Copyright The Financial Times Limited 2008

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South Korea set to weaken further
By Young Sun Kwon

Published: September 1 2008 17:08 | Last updated: September 1 2008 17:08

South Korea¡¯s economy looks set to weaken further, while inflation should remain high – although there is plenty of scope for macroeconomic policy to respond to weaker growth believes Young Sun Kwon, economist at Lehman Brothers.

¡°While the economy is enjoying its longest uninterrupted period of expansion – 21 quarters – since 1992, the pace of growth has started to moderate this year as weaker domestic demand offsets solid exports,¡± he says.

Lehman expects economic growth to slow from 5 per cent in 2007 to 4.1 per cent in 2008 before rebounding to 4.4 per cent next year. It also sees consumer price inflation staying above the Bank of Korea¡¯s target range of 2.5-3.5 per cent this year, mainly due to higher oil prices and a weaker currency.

But Mr Kwon believes that with oil prices falling, inflation should ease back to within target by 2009.

He says: ¡°With Korea having the largest budget surplus in its history [3.8 per cent of GDP in 2007] and low public debt [32 per cent of GDP], the government is embarking on an expansionary fiscal policy in response to the slowing economy.¡±

Mr Kwon notes that monetary tightening has resumed, with the BoK raising rates by 25bp to 5.25 per cent last month in an attempt to keep inflation expectations at bay.

¡°But, given our outlook for continued slower growth and for CPI inflation to abate next year, we look for 75bp of rate cuts in 2009.¡±
Copyright The Financial Times Limited 2008

 
   
     


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